The Crosstab model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 48.6% for Clinton, and 51.4% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 49.2% of the vote.
Ohio is traditionally a swing state, where the two major political parties have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is the reason why the election outcome in that state is considered important in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, because they may contain substantial biases. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.9 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.