Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, Virginia has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular interest.
Remington Research (R) poll results
According to the results, 48.0% of respondents intend to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 20 to October 22 with 1787 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they often incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 52.8% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Virginia sees Clinton at 54.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.3% of the two-party vote in Virginia. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.5 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.