Monmouth released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who answered the question, 39.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 50.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 27 and October 30. The sample size was 402 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 43.8% for Clinton and 56.2% for Trump. To compare: Only 43.4% was obtained by Clinton in the Monmouth poll on August 16, for Trump this result was 56.6%.
Comparison to other polls
Trump is currently at 55.5% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Indiana. This value is 0.7 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Monmouth poll. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 55.8% of the two-party vote in Indiana. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.4 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.