KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 56.0% of interviewees would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 28 to October 31 with 747 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 61.5% for Clinton and 38.5% for Trump. On October 15 Clinton obtained 65.1% in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll and Trump obtained only 34.9%.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.5%. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point better. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's forecast is 1.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.