Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell were circulated. The poll asked interviewees from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 25 and October 25. The sample size was 1030 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can include substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 53.2% for Clinton and 46.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 54.1%. This value is 0.9 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, Polly's forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's error margin.