Goucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Goucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, because they can include large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.4% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Goucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 66.0% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.