MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D) poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 24 to October 26. A total of 812 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large biases, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump. To compare: 55.7% was obtained by Clinton in the MPRC (D) poll on October 15, for Trump this result was only 44.3%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Maine sees Clinton at 54.2% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.2 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, Polly's forecast is 1.6 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is insignificant.