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Louisiana: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 41.6% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, whereas Trump will end up with 58.5%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to achieve 59.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Louisiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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