UPI/CVOTER released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
UPI/CVOTER poll results
The results show that 49.0% of participants said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 48.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from October 24 to October 30 among 1299 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can include large biases. Instead of relying on results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The resulting figures are 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. On October 29 Clinton received only 50.0% in the UPI/CVOTER poll and Trump received 50.0%.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 52.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the UPI/CVOTER poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.7 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.