KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of interviewees are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 15 with 725 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.7 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 63.7% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.