The Issues and Leaders model is included in the index models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 48.6%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, index models are subject to bias. As a result, one should not rely too much on the results of an individual index model. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to consult combined index models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to other index models
An average of recent index models has Clinton at 53.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. The results of the Issues and Leaders model for Clinton are thus 2.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.