The Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The Simon Poll/SIU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 53.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 27 and October 2. The sample size was 865 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Clinton currently runs at 59.2% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Illinois. Compared to her numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIU poll Clinton's poll average is 6.2 percentage points worse. This margin is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in Illinois. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 5.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.