Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook & DeSart model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.4% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will win 46.7%.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.4%. This value is 3 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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