Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell were published. The poll asked participants from Michigan for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who responded, 51.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 30 to October 30 with 953 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice is to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 54.8% for Clinton and 45.2% for Trump. On October 25 Clinton received only 53.2% in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll and Trump received 46.8%.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 54.0% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll Clinton's poll average is 0.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, Polly's forecast is 0.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.