FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll results
Of those who answered the question, 51.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 45.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 31 to October 31 among 737 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.6 percentage points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 53.1% for Clinton and 46.9% for Trump. To compare: 54.8% was gained by Clinton in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll on October 30, for Trump this number was only 45.2%.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote in Michigan. Hence, Polly's prediction is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.