The PollyVote team has completed its 12th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between October 29 and 31, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.
Whereas, in mid-October, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by more than nine points, the new average forecast is two percentage points lower, at 52.7% of the two-party vote (or about a 5.5-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.6% to 54.8%, with a standard deviation of only 0.8 points.
Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely
- Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
- Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
- George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
- Keith Gaddie (University of Oklahoma)
- John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
- Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
- Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
- Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
- Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
- David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
- Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
- Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
- Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)