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Experts agree: Clinton will win


The PollyVote team has completed its 12th survey of elections experts to forecast the 2016 presidential election. In this survey, conducted between October 29 and 31, 13 academics from a variety of colleges and universities responded.

As in previous rounds, all respondents expect a Clinton win. However, her lead has narrowed substantially compared to the results of the previous survey conducted two weeks ago.

Whereas, in mid-October, the experts expected that Clinton will win the popular vote by more than nine points, the new average forecast is two percentage points lower, at 52.7% of the two-party vote (or about a 5.5-point margin). The individual forecasts ranged from 51.6% to 54.8%, with a standard deviation of only 0.8 points.

Polly thanks the experts who participated in this round, namely

  1. Randall Adkins (University of Nebraska Omaha)
  2. Lonna Rae Atkeson (University of New Mexico)
  3. George Edwards (Texas A&M University)
  4. Keith Gaddie (University of Oklahoma)
  5. John Geer (Vanderbilt University)
  6. Sandy Maisel (Colby College)
  7. Michael Martinez (University of Florida)
  8. Thomas Patterson (Harvard University)
  9. Gerald Pomper (Rutgers University)
  10. David Redlawsk (University of Delaware)
  11. Larry Sabato (University of Virginia)
  12. Michael Tesler (University of California, Irvine)
  13. Charles Walcott (Virginia Tech)
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