DeSart & Holbrook model in Oregon: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 56.8% of the two-party vote share in Oregon, while Trump will end up with 43.2%. In comparison, on October 29 Trump was still predicted to win 43.4% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they may include large biases. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Oregon. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Oregon.