The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 60.2% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 39.8%. In comparison, on October 24 Trump was still predicted to obtain 40.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of relying on results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.