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Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to collect only 52.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Results compared to other econometric models

Looking at an average of econometric models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 50.3%. This value is 2.6 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Crosstab model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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