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Crosstab model in West Virginia: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 33.4% for Clinton, and 66.6% for Trump in West Virginia. In comparison, on November 1 Trump was still predicted to win 67.0% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 3.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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