The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.1% for Clinton, and 45.9% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to win 54.3% of the vote.
In Virginia, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.2% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Crosstab model.