The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.6% for Clinton, and 45.4% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to win 45.7% of the vote.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither of the two major parties has had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. This is the reason why forecasts in this state are of particular importance.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.