Crosstab model in Kentucky: Trump is in the lead
The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 35.6% for Clinton, and 64.4% for Trump in Kentucky. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to collect 65.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not focus too much on the results of a single econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.