The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Iowa, whereas Trump will win 50.8%. In comparison, on October 31, Clinton was predicted to gain 49.5% of the vote.
Historically, Iowa has been a purple state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
Single models often include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Iowa.