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Crosstab model in Hawaii: Clinton is in the lead


The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 64.2% for Clinton, and 35.8% for Trump in Hawaii. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to gain 35.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 69.6% of the two-party vote in Hawaii. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 5.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Hawaii.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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