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Crosstab model in Georgia: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 47.8% for Clinton, and 52.2% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to collect 51.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, don't be overly confident the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 52.3% of the two-party vote in Georgia. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 0.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Georgia.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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