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Crosstab model in Arkansas: Trump is in the lead

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The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 40.4% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, while Trump will end up with 59.6%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to win 59.4% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes different methods and data.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 57.4% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 2.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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