Crosstab model: Clinton tied with Trump in Florida

The Crosstab model is included in the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently predicts a tie, with each candidate winning 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to obtain 49.2% of the vote.

Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. Hence, the election outcome in that state is regarded crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 51.0% and Trump 49.0% of the two-party vote in Florida. Clinton has 0.8 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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