ABC/Post released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
ABC/Post poll results
Of those who answered the question, 48.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The phone poll was conducted from October 27 to October 30 with 1167 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-2.9 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 50.5% for Clinton and 49.5% for Trump. To compare: 53.7% was gained by Clinton in the ABC/Post poll on October 25, for Trump this number was only 46.3%.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.4%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the ABC/Post poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.1% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.6 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this difference is insignificant.