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538 (polls-plus) model: Clinton is in the lead

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The 538 (polls-plus) model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 52.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 47.8%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to win 47.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.3%. Relative to numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model Clinton's econometric model average is 1.9 percentage points lower.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.2% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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