WMUR/UNH released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New Hampshire were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Historically, New Hampshire has been a purple state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.
WMUR/UNH poll results
The results show that 46.0% of participants will cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 26 to October 30, among a random sample of 641 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, we recommend to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 54.1% for Clinton and 45.9% for Trump. For comparison: 61.7% was obtained by Clinton in the WMUR/UNH poll on April 17, for Trump this result was only 38.3%.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New Hampshire polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.1%. Relative to her numbers in the WMUR/UNH poll Clinton's poll average is 1 percentage point worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. This means that the combined PollyVote is 0.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.