WCAX – BurlingtonWCAX released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
WCAX - BurlingtonWCAX poll results
According to the results, 50.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 22.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 19 to October 22 with 603 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.0 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 69.4% for Clinton and 30.6% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Vermont sees Clinton at 68.5% of the two-party vote. Relative to her numbers in the WCAX – BurlingtonWCAX poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that Polly's prediction is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this difference is negligible.