WBUR/MassINC poll in Massachusetts: Clinton with 26 points lead
By WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
Of those who answered the question, 57.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 31.0% said that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 13 and October 16. The sample size was 502 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they may contain substantial errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
An average of recent polls in Massachusetts sees Clinton at 67.6% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.8 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.
