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Vermont: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 69.3% for Clinton, and 30.7% for Trump in Vermont. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to garner 29.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, don't focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 67.4% of the two-party vote in Vermont. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Vermont.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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