Results of a new national poll administered by ABC News/Washington Post were released. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
ABC News/Washington Post poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 47.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The phone poll was carried out between October 26 and October 29. The sample size was 1695 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 51.0% for Clinton and 49.0% for Trump. For comparison: 51.6% was obtained by Clinton in the ABC News/Washington Post poll on October 27, for Trump this result was only 48.4%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.8%. This value is 1.8 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the ABC News/Washington Post poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. That is, the combined PollyVote is 2.5 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.