South Dakota: Crosstab model shows Trump in the lead

The Crosstab model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 39.6% for Clinton, and 60.5% for Trump in South Dakota. In comparison, on October 28 Trump was predicted to collect 59.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The Crosstab model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in South Dakota. The results of the Crosstab model for Trump are thus 1.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in South Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.