Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 44.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30, among a random sample of 989 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 47.8% for Clinton and 52.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Trump at 50.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 48.9% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's sampling error.