PPIC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from California were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
PPIC poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 14 to October 23, among a random sample of 1024 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 65.9% for Clinton and 34.2% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in California has Clinton at 63.8% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the PPIC poll Clinton's poll average is 2.1 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.7% of the two-party vote in California. This means that Polly's forecast is 3.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's sampling error.