The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.