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Ohio: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead

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The DeSart model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 49.1% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.9%.

In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. This is the reason why the state is commonly regarded as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

The DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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