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Crosstab model in Ohio: Trump is in the lead


The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.8%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to obtain 50.7% of the vote.

Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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