The Crosstab model published an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Ohio, whereas Trump will win 50.8%. In comparison, on October 30 Trump was predicted to obtain 50.7% of the vote.
Ohio is traditionally a battleground state, where the GOP and the Democrats have historically gained similar voter support. Therefore, the election outcome in that state is considered critical in determining the overall result of the presidential election.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The Crosstab model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in Ohio. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the Crosstab model.