Remington Research (R) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Ohio is traditionally a purple state, where Democrats and Republicans have often won similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome in that state is viewed as critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 30 to October 30 with 1187 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.8 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 47.3% for Clinton and 52.8% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 49.4% of the two-party vote in Ohio. This means that the PollyVote is 3.4 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.