Remington Research (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from North Carolina were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 47.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 30 and October 30. The sample size was 1176 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.9 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, you should not rely too much on the results of a single poll. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in figures of 48.9% for Clinton and 51.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Trump can currently count on 48.2% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in North Carolina. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 49.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's margin of error.