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New York: New Siena poll shows Trump behind by 24 points


Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Siena poll results




Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17 with 611 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Individual polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of New York polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 62.5%. This value is 1.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Siena poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 63.4% of the two-party vote in New York. This means that Polly's forecast is 0.9 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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