Results of a new poll conducted by Remington Research (R) were released. The poll asked interviewees from Colorado for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Colorado is traditionally a battleground state, where Democrats and Republicans have historically achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is considered crucial in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Remington Research (R) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 43.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 20 to October 22 among 1581 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.5 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they can contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 53.0%. This value is 1.9 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Remington Research (R) poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 55.0% of the two-party vote in Colorado. That is, the combined PollyVote is 3.9 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.