Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Politico/Morning Consult poll

Results of a new national poll conducted by Politico/Morning Consult were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.

Politico/Morning Consult poll results
46

Clinton

43

Trump

Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from October 29 to October 30 among 1772 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On October 20 Clinton received 53.5% in the Politico/Morning Consult poll and Trump received only 46.5%.

Results vs. other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. Compared to numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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