Trump and Clinton neck-and-neck in new Politico/Morning Consult poll
By Results of a new national poll conducted by Politico/Morning Consult were announced. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Politico/Morning Consult poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via Internet from October 29 to October 30 among 1772 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-2.4 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 51.7% for Clinton and 48.3% for Trump. On October 20 Clinton received 53.5% in the Politico/Morning Consult poll and Trump received only 46.5%.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.9%. Compared to numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points better. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. This means that the PollyVote is 1.8 points above polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.
