Crosstab model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead
The Crosstab model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 59.3% for Clinton, and 40.7% for Trump in New Jersey. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was still predicted to collect 40.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not put too much trust in the results of an individual econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 59.6% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in New Jersey.