Results of a new national poll conducted by IBD were released. The poll asked participants for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
IBD poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 43.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 25 to October 30 with 1013 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may include substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.1% for Clinton and 48.9% for Trump. On October 29 Clinton obtained 52.3% in the IBD poll and Trump obtained only 47.7%.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. This value is 1.7 percentage points higher than respective numbers in the IBD poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.5% of the two-party vote. Hence, Polly's forecast is 2.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this deviation is insignificant.