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New Hampshire: Crosstab model shows Clinton in the lead

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The Crosstab model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 54.1% of the two-party vote share in New Hampshire, while Trump will end up with 45.9%. In comparison, on October 31 Trump was predicted to garner 45.7% of the vote.

New Hampshire is traditionally a purple state, where Republicans and Democrats have often achieved similar voter support. This is why the election outcome here is viewed as crucial in determining the overall result of the presidential election.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, you should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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