The Crosstab model released an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.5% for Clinton, and 45.5% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 28, Clinton was predicted to gain 54.7% of the vote.
In New Hampshire, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. The results of the Crosstab model for Clinton are thus 0.6 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Hampshire.