New Goucher College poll in Maryland: Clinton with whopping lead
By Results of a new poll carried out by Goucher College were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Goucher College poll results
According to the results, 58.0% of interviewees are going to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 17 to September 20. A total of 514 likely voters responded. The sampling error is +/-4.3 percentage points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 69.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maryland. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the Goucher College poll. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 66.1% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 3.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.
